The Government Wants to Cut Net Migration in Half
Australia’s net overseas migration is projected to fall from around 510,000 in 2022-23 to approximately 250,000 by 2026-27. That is effectively halving the number of people settling in Australia within just a few years.
This is not speculation. The figures come directly from the Australian Government’s Population Statement, and the policy changes needed to achieve this target are already being implemented.
If you are planning to migrate to Australia or you are on a temporary visa hoping to stay permanently, this broader policy direction matters as much as the details of your specific visa subclass.
How Did We Get Here?
After COVID borders reopened, Australia experienced a surge in temporary migration that caught everyone off guard. International students, working holiday makers, and temporary workers flooded back in, pushing net migration to record levels. Housing shortages, infrastructure strain, and public pressure followed.
The government’s response has been a systematic tightening of the temporary visa system throughout 2025 and into 2026, including the visa hopping ban, doubling the 485 visa fee, and tightening onshore visa switching rules.
What Does This Mean in Practice?
The halving of net migration is being achieved through several mechanisms working together:
Fewer Temporary Visas
The government is reducing the number of temporary visa holders in Australia. The visa hopping restrictions alone are expected to reduce temporary visa numbers by 85,000 within 12 months. Stricter Genuine Student requirements are filtering out non-genuine student visa applicants.
More Departures
With fewer options to switch visas onshore, more temporary visa holders will need to leave when their current visa expires. The government estimates up to 180,000 temporary visa holders may need to depart by mid-2026.
Permanent Migration Cap Holds Steady
Importantly, the permanent migration program remains at 185,000 places for 2025-26. The cuts are targeting temporary migration, not permanent migration. If anything, the government is trying to shift the balance so that more migrants come through planned, permanent pathways rather than accumulating through temporary visa extensions.
Good News for Skilled Migrants
If you are a skilled migrant with strong qualifications, English ability, and work experience, the population plan is actually positive for you. The government is not trying to reduce skilled migration. It is trying to make the system more targeted and less reliant on temporary visa pathways.
The permanent skilled stream has 132,200 places, making up 71% of the total migration program. The focus is on:
- Employer-sponsored visas for workers filling genuine skill shortages
- Points-tested visas (189, 190, 491) for high-scoring candidates
- Innovation and talent visas for exceptional individuals
What About Partner and Family Visas?
The family stream, which is predominantly partner visas, has 52,500 places, representing about 28% of the program. Partner visa places remain steady at around 40,500.
The population plan does not target genuine family migration. If you are in a real relationship with an Australian citizen or permanent resident, the pathway to a partner visa remains open. Processing times may even improve as the overall system becomes less congested.
The Housing Connection
Much of the political pressure behind the migration reduction comes from Australia’s housing crisis. With rental vacancy rates at historic lows and house prices continuing to rise in major cities, the government is under pressure to demonstrate that it is managing population growth.
For migrants, this means public sentiment matters. The more the government can show that migration is planned, skilled, and economically productive, the more political support there is for maintaining strong permanent migration numbers.
How to Position Yourself
In a tightening migration environment, the strongest applicants will continue to succeed. Here is how to make sure you are one of them:
- Prioritise permanent pathways. If you have a choice between extending a temporary visa or pursuing permanent residency, aim for permanent. The system is being designed to reward this.
- Build your skills profile. High English scores, relevant work experience, and in-demand occupations will matter more than ever.
- Act on timelines. Do not wait until your visa is about to expire. Start planning your next step at least 6 to 12 months in advance.
- Get professional advice. With rules changing every few months, what was possible last year may not be possible today. A migration lawyer can help you navigate the current landscape.
The Bigger Picture
Australia is not closing its doors. It is redesigning the entrance. The permanent migration program remains one of the largest per capita in the world. But the days of open-ended temporary visa accumulation are ending.
If you are serious about building a life in Australia, the best thing you can do is understand the system as it is now, not as it was two years ago, and plan accordingly.
Our migration lawyers can help you assess your options and build a strategy that works within the current policy settings.
Book a consultation to discuss your migration pathway.
